26 │
Impact of the cantonal risk management system on
governance and natural risk reduction in Babahoyo,
Ecuador
Impacto del sistema cantonal de gestión de riesgos en
la gobernanza y la reducción de riesgos naturales en
Babahoyo, Ecuador
Abstract
This study analyzes the Cantonal Risk Management System (SCGR) as a tool for reducing natural risks in the Babahoyo canton (Ecuador)
during the period January 2022–September 2023. A mixed-methods approach with qualitative emphasis was applied, combining eld,
documentary, and descriptive analyses to evaluate institutional actors, main hazards (oods and landslides), and the management model.
The results reveal a low level of implementation of strategic actions, which limits eective risk management. The multi-hazard matrix and
territorial analysis identied oods and landslides as the most relevant threats, mainly associated with geographic conditions and river
overow during the rainy season. Based on these ndings, a governance-oriented management model is proposed to strengthen inter-
institutional coordination and improve local capacity for risk reduction.
Keywords: Risk management, oods; landslides; risk reduction, inter-institutional coordination.
Resumen
Este estudio analiza el Sistema Cantonal de Gestión de Riesgos (SCGR) como herramienta para la reducción de riesgos en el cantón
Babahoyo durante el período enero 2022-septiembre 2023. A través de un enfoque de métodos mixtos con énfasis cualitativo, basado en
estudios de campo, documentales y descriptivos, la investigación evaluó las instituciones involucradas, las principales amenazas naturales
(inundaciones y deslizamientos) y el modelo de gestión empleado. La población estudiada incluyó entidades gubernamentales, ONGs,
organizaciones civiles y miembros activos del sistema, utilizando un muestreo de conveniencia enfocado en los responsables de las Unidades
de Gestión de Riesgos. Los resultados revelaron un bajo nivel de implementación de las acciones estratégicas, lo que conlleva importantes
limitaciones para una gestión ecaz. Adicionalmente, la matriz de riesgo y el mapa multiamenaza identicaron a las inundaciones y
deslizamientos como las amenazas más relevantes, inuenciadas por la ubicación geográca y el desbordamiento de los ríos durante el
invierno. Como propuesta, se desarrolló un modelo de gestión para mejorar la coordinación interinstitucional y fortalecer la capacidad de
respuesta ante los riesgos naturales.
Palabras clave: Gestión de riesgos, deslizamientos de tierras, inundaciones, reducción de riesgos, coordinación interinstitucional.
Recibido: 18 de noviembre 2025
Aceptado: 01 de abril 2026
Carlos Fabián Ramírez
1*
; Fabián Rivera
2
; Luis Villacís
3
; Gloria Iñiguez
4
1 Universidad Estatal de Bolívar. Carrera de Ingeniería en Riesgos de Desastres; cramirez@ueb.edu.ec; https://orcid.org/0009-0008-
4576-9987
2 Universidad Estatal de Bolívar: Carrera de Agroindustrias; edgar.rivera@ueb.edu.ec; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2612-4760
3 Universidad Estatal de Bolívar. Carrera de Ingeniería en Riesgos de Desastres; lhvillacis@ueb.edu.ec; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-
7062-4471
4 Universidad Estatal de Bolívar. Carrera de Ingeniería en Riesgos de Desastres; giniguez@ueb.edu.ec; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-
7069-0620
*Autor de correspondencia
Revista Ciencia UNEMI
Vol. 19, N° 51, Mayo-Agosto 2026, pp. 26 - 40
ISSN 1390-4272 Impreso
ISSN 2528-7737 Electrónico
https://doi.org/10.29076/issn.2528-7737vol19iss51.2026pp26-40p
│ 27
Ramírez. Impact of the cantonal risk management system
I. INTRODUCTION
Hydro-meteorological hazards such as oods and
landslides have become recurrent drivers of disaster
risk in many Latin American cities. In Ecuador, the
interaction between a complex hydrographic network,
intense rainy seasons and accelerated land-use change
generates repeated emergency situations that put
severe pressure on local governments and communities.
Under these conditions, risk management is no longer
limited to emergency response; it demands robust
local governance arrangements capable of anticipating,
reducing and managing risks in an integrated way.
(Biass et al., 2013; Gomez-Zapata et al., 2021),
(Gavilánez et al., 2020), (Taco et al., 2023). Within
this framework, the Sistema Cantonal de Gestión de
Riesgos (SCGR) emerges as a crucial tool to mitigate
and prevent risks at the municipal level, contributing to
sustainable development and community safety.
The Babahoyo canton, located in the province
of Los Ríos, faces a high level of exposure to oods
and landslides due to the saturation of the Babahoyo
River basin and its more than 1,400 tributaries. These
threats, exacerbated during winter, have had signicant
impacts on the local population and infrastructure
(Borbor-Cordova et al., 2020). However, despite the
severity of these risks, the institutions comprising
the SCGR have prioritized emergency response over
prevention and mitigation, reecting an imbalance in
risk management.
Among the main challenges facing the SCGR
are limited budget allocation, lack of technological
equipment, absence of prevention programs, and
institutional disinterest (Ilbay-Yupa et al., 2021). These
gaps have hindered the implementation of an integral
and transversal system that ensures inter-institutional
collaboration and eective coordination with the
Sistema Nacional Descentralizado de Gestión de Riesgos
(SNGRE). Transversality in risk management implies
the coordinated participation of all stakeholders, from
government institutions to civil society organizations,
to comprehensively address existing threats.
In this context, the present study identies the
main natural threats, such as oods and landslides,
across each area of Babahoyo canton, analyzes and
diagnoses the current state of the SCGR, with the
purpose of identifying key risks, as shown in Figure 1,
and proposes a management model oriented towards
risk prevention and mitigation. The importance of
this work lies in oering practical tools and strategies
aligned with the Código Orgánico de Organización
Territorial, Autonomía y Descentralización (COOTAD),
which assigns responsibilities to Gobiernos Autónomos
Descentralizados (GADs) for disaster prevention,
reaction, mitigation, and reconstruction.
Furthermore, this study aims to strengthen inter-
institutional coordination and promote the adoption
of preventive measures to reduce the population’s
vulnerability. This approach not only addresses
Figure 1. Floods in the Babahoyo Canton
current threats but also aspires to build a resilient
society capable of facing future climatic and geological
challenges.
Against this background, the research problem
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Volumen 19, Número 51, Mayo-Agosto 2026, pp. 26 - 40
addressed in this article can be formulated as follows:
to what extent does the Cantonal Risk Management
System of Babahoyo eectively contribute to local
governance and to the reduction of natural risks—
particularly oods and landslides—during the period
January 2022 to September 2023? This problem
is approached from an analytical perspective that
combines risk governance, territorial planning and
multi-hazard assessment, rather than from a merely
technical-administrative description of the system.
To operationalise this problem, the study is guided
by the following research questions:
1. What are the main natural hazards that aect
the canton of Babahoyo, and how are they
spatially distributed in the territory?
2. How is the SCGR structured and what level
of implementation have its strategic actions
achieved in the period 2022–2023?
3. What degree of inter-institutional articulation
exists among the entities that comprise the
SCGR, and how does this articulation inuence
risk governance?
4. Which critical areas and populations
concentrate the highest levels of risk, and what
factors explain their vulnerability?
5. What type of management model can
strengthen governance and enhance the
capacity of the SCGR to reduce natural risks in
Babahoyo?
Accordingly, the general objective of the research is
to analyse the impact of the Cantonal Risk Management
System on governance and on the reduction of natural
risks in the canton of Babahoyo between January 2022
and September 2023, and to propose a management
model that strengthens inter-institutional coordination
and territorial resilience. The specic objectives are to:
• Characterise the multi-hazard context of
Babahoyo, with emphasis on oods and
landslides, through the construction of a risk
matrix and a multi-hazard map.
• Evaluate the institutional architecture of
the SCGR, the degree of implementation of
selected strategic actions and the existing
capacities in key entities.
• Quantify and interpret the degree of inter-
institutional articulation among the actors
involved in risk management at the cantonal
level.
• Identify and classify critical sites and vulnerable
populations that require priority intervention.
• Design a governance-oriented management
model that mainstreams risk management
into cantonal planning and decision-making
processes.
The original scientic contribution of this article
lies in the development and application of an integrated
analytical framework that combines: (i) an assessment
of risk governance and inter-institutional articulation
within the SCGR; (ii) a quantitative analysis of the
eectiveness of strategic actions; and (iii) a detailed
territorial diagnosis based on a multi-hazard risk
matrix and the identication of 39 critical sites. This
approach generates empirical evidence on how a
cantonal risk management system functions in practice
under a decentralised governance scheme and oers a
replicable methodology for other medium-sized cities
in the Ecuadorian coastal region and similar contexts.
Literature Review
The management of risks associated with oods
and droughts has been extensively researched due to its
global relevance in the context of climate change and
accelerated urbanization. Reviewed studies address
various aspects of this challenge, ranging from regional
analyses to methodological developments for risk
evaluation and mitigation. The analysis of extreme
events associated with oods and droughts highlights
how risk management faces limitations in addressing
unprecedented events. For instance, (Kreibich et
al., 2022) demonstrates that while risk management
has globally reduced vulnerabilities, it encounters
signicant diculties when dealing with unprecedented
events, such as those exceeding the design levels of
existing infrastructure. This nding is alarming given
the projected increase in extreme hydrological events
due to climate change. Similarly, (Jia et al., 2022)
examines ood events in the Yangtze River basin in
China, revealing that although management measures
have improved considerably since 1998, signicant
challenges remain related to urbanization and climatic
variability.
At a regional level, (Sofro et al., 2024) identies
high-risk drought areas in Indonesia using clustering
methods such as k-means, enabling impact anticipation
and mitigation strategy proposals. This methodological
approach underscores the importance of combining
│ 29
Ramírez. Impact of the cantonal risk management system
advanced analytical techniques with extreme climatic
data. The implementation of hydrological models and
technological tools has been a recurring focus in the
literature. (O. N. Shazwani, T. Wardah, 2024) describes
the use of HEC-HMS with rainfall data obtained from
meteorological radars to model oods in Malaysia,
highlighting the need to calibrate indirect data for
improved accuracy. Similarly, (Kumar et al., 2022) uses
the SWAT model to identify ood risk zones in Kerala,
India, integrating climatic, topographic, and ecological
factors. These studies underline the importance of
integrated approaches for risk assessment and the
design of resilient strategies.
In Mexico, (García-Martínez et al., 2024) applies
statistical distributions to analyze extreme precipitation
and generate IDF curves that inform the design of
drainage infrastructure in high-risk areas. This study
highlights an innovative approach by considering
weighted variables to improve result representativeness.
The literature emphasizes the need for preventive and
proactive approaches in risk management. For example,
(Yang & Liu, 2020) provides an exhaustive review
of risk reduction strategies for oods and droughts,
emphasizing the utility of emerging technologies such
as articial intelligence and the Internet of Things.
However, many studies, such as (Rana et al.,
2021) and (Almoradie et al., 2020), indicate that risk
management in countries like Pakistan and Ghana
remains reactive, limiting its eectiveness. These studies
recommend climate change adaptation strategies and
community participation to strengthen resilience.
On a more local scale, (Kreibich et al., 2022) reviews
ood control policies in Pakistan, concluding that
despite legislative advances, no signicant reduction
in damages associated with these events has been
achieved. Similarly, (Shah et al., 2020) highlights the
importance of understanding oodplain risk dynamics
and proposes criteria for selecting appropriate
measures based on the specic characteristics of each
region.
Identifying factors that increase vulnerability is
essential for designing eective strategies. (Tariq et al.,
2020) uses the IPCC framework to evaluate climate risk
in indigenous communities of the Eastern Himalayas,
nding that factors such as lack of land tenure
and limited employment opportunities exacerbate
vulnerability. In Bangladesh, (Sandoval Erazo et al.,
2022) analyzes rainfall variability during the dry
season and its impact on non-rice crops, concluding
that rice remains a less risky option for agricultural
intensication in coastal areas.
Although the reviewed studies oer valuable
contributions, they present signicant limitations. Most
focus on regional or tool-specic approaches, lacking
integrated perspectives that combine multiple risk
factors and interdisciplinary approaches. Furthermore,
many studies do not suciently consider the need to
strengthen local capacities and governance structures
to ensure the eective implementation of strategies
(Maniruzzaman et al., 2024).
The present work addresses these gaps through
the development of a holistic approach that integrates
vulnerability analysis, and participatory mitigation
strategies. By combining advanced tools with a deep
contextual analysis, this study aims to provide more
sustainable and adaptive solutions for managing ood
and drought risks in vulnerable regions.
II. MATERIAL AND METHODS
The study was conducted in the canton of
Babahoyo, province of Los Ríos, Ecuador. The canton
is located in a low-lying oodplain characterised by the
conuence of the Babahoyo River and a dense network
of tributaries and drainage channels. Recurrent
oods and local landslides aect both urban and rural
parishes, particularly agricultural settlements located
on riverbanks, embankments and unstable slopes. The
analysis considered the entire cantonal territory, with
special attention to the enclosures and neighbourhoods
later identied as critical in the multi-hazard risk
matrix.
A. Implementation Model
A descriptive and analytical study with a mixed-
methods approach was adopted. Quantitative
components were used to: (i) characterise the degree
of inter-institutional articulation within the Cantonal
Risk Management System (SCGR); (ii) build the
multi-hazard risk matrix; and (iii) classify critical
sites. Qualitative components were used to interpret
the institutional dynamics of the SCGR, validate the
strategic actions and understand the perceptions of key
actors regarding governance and risk reduction. The
period of analysis covers January 2022 to September
2023, which corresponds to the most recent complete
hydrometeorological cycles and the implementation of
the current cantonal planning instruments.
B. Action Plan
The action plan is developed in accordance with
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Volumen 19, Número 51, Mayo-Agosto 2026, pp. 26 - 40
SNGR guidelines, detailing specic objectives, goals,
activities, required resources, responsible parties,
and execution timelines. This approach allows
for continuous monitoring and evaluation of the
eectiveness of implemented actions, ensuring the
progressive reduction of risks in the territory.
C. Mainstreaming Risk Management
The mainstreaming of risk management aims
D. Structuring Risk Management Units
Risk Management Units (UGRs) are structured
based on institutional needs, considering their mission,
vision, and objectives. Regular evaluations are proposed
to ensure relevance and adaptation to changing
conditions. This approach is supported by Article 140 of
the COOTAD, which mandates GADs to adopt technical
norms for risk prevention and management.
E. Monitoring Hazardous Events
This unit is responsible for observing, recording,
and analyzing hazardous events in the territory, alerting
authorities and the population to potential threats.
Using reliable information, it enables early warnings to
protect communities.
F. Preparedness and Response
The preparedness and response unit plans and
coordinates actions to protect lives, health, the
environment, and property. This includes activating
contingency plans, mobilizing resources, and restoring
basic services during emergencies.
to strengthen the national management system
by optimizing planning, implementing preventive
measures, and building resilience. This model proposes:
• Including risk management within territorial
planning.
• Establishing a Risk Management Unit (UGR).
• Institutional coordination with communities
and external stakeholders.
G. Risk Reduction
A detailed analysis of existing risks is proposed,
prioritizing prevention and mitigation measures to
reduce vulnerability. This approach includes:
• Prevention: Raising awareness and educating
in disaster-prone areas.
• Mitigation: Implementing corrective measures
to reduce the impact of threats.
H. Inter-Institutional Coordination
Tools such as Technical Working Groups (TWGs)
are used to plan, execute, and evaluate actions. These
groups address issues such as safe water, health, basic
services, and humanitarian assistance.
I. Emergency Operations Committee (COE)
The COE, structured into ve components (decision-
making, technical implementation, operational support,
information management, and infrastructure support),
coordinates emergency responses, ensuring ecient
and synchronized operations among stakeholders.
Semi-structured interview guides and a structured
questionnaire were applied to representatives of the
Figure 2. Map of flood and landslide events identified in the Babahoyo canton.
│ 31
Ramírez. Impact of the cantonal risk management system
institutions included in Table 1. The instruments
collected information on: organisational structure,
human and material resources, participation in the
Emergency Operations Committee (COE), coordination
mechanisms, implementation of strategic actions and
perceived weaknesses and strengths of the SCGR.
• Validation: the guides and questionnaire were
reviewed by three experts (two academics
specialised in risk management and one
technician from the national risk management
service) to ensure content validity, clarity and
relevance of the items. A pilot application with a
small group of ocials allowed minor wording
adjustments before the full application.
• Application: interviews were conducted face to
face or virtually, recorded with prior consent
and transcribed for analysis. The questionnaire
was applied using digital forms and, in some
cases, printed formats, ensuring that each
participating institution provided a single
consolidated response.
III. RESULTS
The research results focus on three specic aspects
to consolidate the proposal based on designing a
management model that mainstreams risk management
within a Cantonal System. This system comprises
the actors involved in the prevention, response, and
recovery from adverse events. The key ndings are as
follows:
A. Current Situation of the SCGR
The research focuses on identifying the members of
the SCGR and their roles in the territory when facing
an adverse event. While guidelines established by
the SNGRD exist, territorial realities vary depending
on the context. This section evaluates the current
circumstances related to the SCGR in Babahoyo, with
a particular focus on the institutions that comprise it.
Surveys were conducted with key administrators and
members of the organizational structures of these
entities.
This analysis captures perceptions, challenges,
and strengths within the system, providing an
informed foundation for introducing strategies and
improvements. The evaluation represents a critical
stage for optimizing the SCGR's capacities, enhancing
its eectiveness in mitigating the inherent risks in
Babahoyo. The entities identied to strengthen the
proposal are presented in Table 1.
Table 1. Entities identified
Governing Body Secretaria Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos (SNGR)
Cantonal GAD Risk Management Unit (UGR) of Babahoyo Canton
Grados de libertad (df)
Parish GADs
UGR of Febres Cordero Parish GAD
UGR of La Unión Parish GAD
UGR of Caracol Parish GAD
UGR of Pimocha Parish GAD
Member Organizations
Fire Department
Rights Protection Council or Ombudsman Oce
Health Sector
Education Sector
Economic and Social Inclusion
Housing Sector
National Police
Strategic Sectors (CNEL)
Red Cross
Trac Agency
Armed Forces
Invited Members
International Cooperation in the Territory
Provincial GAD of Los Ríos
Babahoyo Technical University
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B. Strategic Actions
Once the SCGR stakeholders were identied, two
of the nineteen strategic actions were identied to
determine their impact within the present research
Subsequently, Strategic Action 6 is detailed, whose
main objective within the project is to institutionalize
Based on the documentary analysis and interviews,
the strategic actions dened at national level were
contrasted with the activities actually implemented
in Babahoyo. From this process, the actions most
directly related to governance strengthening and risk
reduction were selected—specically, Strategic Action
1 and Strategic Action 6. For each action, a catalogue
of activities and responsible entities was elaborated.
Implementation level was classied into three
categories: “implemented”, “in progress” and “not
initiated”.
For each strategic action, a degree of
implementation was calculated as:
where akis the implementation status of activity k(1
= implemented; 0.5 = in progress; 0 = not initiated)
and wkis a weighting factor that reects its relevance.
The results are presented in Tables 2 and 3.
topic; among them, Strategic Action 1 is carried out in
order to evaluate the threats present in the territory as
detailed in Table 2 below.
and regulate risk management, as shown in Table 3.
Table 2. Strategic Action 1
Table 3. Strategic Action 6
Indicators Frequency Percentage
0: Strategic action not executed 3 18.75%
1: Historical records of hazardous events in a database 6 37.5%
2: Threat reports with alphanumeric and geographic data 5 31.25%
3: Technical report on threats 1 6.25%
4: Specialized threat studies 0 0%
5: Specic threat studies linked to an IDE 1 6.25%
TOTAL 16 100%
Indicators Frequency Percentage
0: Strategic action not executed 4 25%
1: Ordinance for establishing the Risk Management Unit or its
equivalent 7 43.75%
2: POA for the operation of the Risk Management Unit or its
equivalent 1 6.25%
3: Resolution/regulation establishing risk reduction policies 0 0%
4: Report on executed contracts for risk management,
payment receipts 1 6.25%
5: Ordinance establishing the Cantonal System 3 18.75%
TOTAL 16 100%
According to the ndings, several entities have
a moderate involvement in hazard assessment and
documentation of historical events. This facilitates
the implementation of specic measures related to
risk management. Given that the responsibility for
this competence is decentralized, more accountable
entities, such as the municipal government, are
required. This role is crucial when other institutions
disengage from these responsibilities, considering
that risk management is a cross-cutting initiative that
requires rapid action in the face of adverse events.
The methodology focuses on analyzing the degree
of articulation and relationships between the entities
that make up the cantonal SCGR. This aspect is
fundamental to identify suitable collaborators and
facilitate the adoption of eective measures, promoting
collaborative participation during an adverse event.
The analysis shows favorable results, with 75.7%
eectiveness according to a cross matrix of inter-
institutional interrelationships as detailed in Table 4.
│ 33
Ramírez. Impact of the cantonal risk management system
Table 4. Degrees of articulations and their effectiveness
Table 5. Identification of enclosures and their hazards
Indicators Frequency Percentage
Low 6 1.57%
Medium 86 22.63%
High 288 75.78%
TOTAL 380 100%
N. Location Site Incident Risk Level
1La Siria Road, La
Providencia La Siria Site Undermining of the road. HIGH
2 San Juan de Las Malvinas San Juan Las
Malvinas
Loss of a wall, damage to 2 houses,
water intrusion into more than 6
houses.
HIGH
3 Drain - Las Malvinas Las Malvinas Site Damaged drain; partial weakening of
an asphalt road. HIGH
4Febres Cordero Road -
Mata de Cacao Febres Cordero Collapse of a drain and structural
damage to the road. HIGH
5 El Guarumo Site El Guarumo Site Flooding caused by the Pueblo Viejo
River. VERY HIGH
6 "San Francisco" Site "San Francisco" Site Loss of a protective wall. HIGH
7 Las Luchas Site Las Luchas Site Loss of a protective wall. MEDIUM
8Section I - San Jacinto
Entrance Ecuavegetal Damage to a 50-meter entrance at
Ecuavegetal. VERY HIGH
9Section II - Jujan, near
Eduardo Mill Ecuavegetal Damage to 25 meters near Eduardo
Mill. VERY HIGH
10 María Island María Island Water intrusion into houses, minor
ooding in 9 houses in the area. VERY HIGH
11 La Chorrera Stream La Chorrera Site Flooding aected houses, increasing
the likelihood of further damage. VERY HIGH
12 Protective Wall Emilia Alvarado Site
Breakage of a protective wall, ooding,
and water intrusion into several
houses.
HIGH
13 Carriageable Wall La Valdivia Site Breakage of a carriageable wall due to
rising levels of the Clementina River. VERY HIGH
14 Section I, Vulnerable
Housing
Loma de Hojarasca
Site Identied breakage of a protective wall. HIGH
15 Section II Protective Wall Loma de Hojarasca
Site Identied breakage of a protective wall. MEDIUM
16 Section III Protective Wall Loma de Hojarasca
Site
Breakage of a protective wall with
several weakened points identied. MEDIUM
17 Flooded Road Ibarrola Site Flooded road sections, leaving
approximately 10 families isolated. HIGH
18 Canal without Flow Las Garzas Site Las Garzas Site is aected by a canal
currently lacking protective walls. VERY HIGH
19 Containment Wall and
Flooded Roads San Vicente Site San Vicente Site is one of the most
aected areas due to its location. VERY HIGH
20 Road Collapse La Pinela Site Road section collapse, hindering
mobility for residents of the area. HIGH
The identication of hazards is shown in detail in
Table 5, identifying 39 sites in the Babahoyo canton
with their respective incidents and level of risk.
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Volumen 19, Número 51, Mayo-Agosto 2026, pp. 26 - 40
21 Road Connecting Two Sites La Angélica-
Santandereana
Loss of passage between La Angélica
and Santandereana Sites. VERY HIGH
22 Drain Collapse La Corona Site Drain collapse due to heavy rainfall in
the area. HIGH
23 Road Baba Crossing Partial damage to a road section. MEDIUM
24 Drain Collapse State Road E25 Drain damage in the area caused by
heavy winter rainfall. HIGH
25 Cacharí Hill Road Los Robles Road sections under water. MEDIUM
26 Jujan River Los Juncos Site Flooding of access roads, leaving
several families isolated. HIGH
27 Mata de Cacao Road La Teresa Sector Sinkhole on the asphalt road, near a
drain. HIGH
28 Chilintomo River Los Álamos Site Flooding due to the breakage of a
protective wall. VERY HIGH
29 Pita River San Rafael Site Overow of the Pita River. HIGH
30 Pueblo Viejo River La Legua Site Weakening of the protective wall and
overow of the Pueblo Viejo River. VERY HIGH
31 Clementina River Overow La Puntilla Site Overow of the river. VERY HIGH
32 Drain Collapse Matilde Esther/El
Comején 2
Increased water ow in the area due to
heavy rainfall. HIGH
33 Protective Wall Collapse
and Erosion La Golconda Erosion of natural protective walls
caused by Las Juntas River. VERY HIGH
34 Protective Wall Collapse La Avelina Site Erosion and collapse of protective
walls. HIGH
35 Erosion of Protective Walls Samama Oriental Damage due to progressive erosion of
protective walls. HIGH
36 Chilintomo River Overow La Alambra Site
Damage, loss, and erosion of a
protective wall, leaving approximately
50 families exposed.
HIGH
37 Chilintomo River Overow San Nicolás Site Partial erosion of protective walls,
leaving at least 19 families exposed. HIGH
38 Landslide El Tigrillo Site Heavy rainfall caused landslides on
certain slopes. HIGH
39 Landslide Santandereana Site Heavy rainfall caused partial road
landslides. HIGH
Inter-institutional articulation within the SCGR
was analysed using a relational matrix in which each
cell A_ijrepresents the existence of a coordination
link between institutions iand j. A link was considered
present when institutions: (i) jointly participated in
the COE; (ii) co-implemented prevention or response
activities; or (iii) shared formal cooperation agreements
or protocols.
From this matrix, the global articulation index was
calculated as:
where Lobs is the number of observed links and Lmax
=n(n-1)/2is the maximum possible number of links for
ninstitutions. This index, which in Babahoyo reached
75.78 %, quanties how dense and interconnected
the SCGR network is. Degrees of articulation and their
qualitative interpretation are summarised in Table 4,
and Figure 3 shows the resulting inter-institutional
network
│ 35
Ramírez. Impact of the cantonal risk management system
The geographic context reveals that the area in
question is characterized by a greater susceptibility
to risks, which is mapped in Fig 2, mainly associated
with ooding phenomena, which negatively aect
essential services, contribute to the collapse of retaining
structures, displace aected households and aggravate
river overows and increased water ows. These
conditions underscore the need to strengthen the
capacities of risk management institutions, involving
both direct and indirect entities.
In addition, most of the documented incidents occur
in areas classied as high risk, especially near rivers and
tributaries. The lack of risk awareness among families
This proposal focuses on the organizational
conguration of the Cantonal Government, which
contemplates the integration of Risk Management as
an advisory entity with a cross-cutting perspective. This
approach seeks to ensure the eective incorporation
of Risk Management in all areas of competence, thus
contributing to a more comprehensive and coordinated
management of risks in the Canton's governmental
sphere.
These results indicate that the SCGR is still at
an incipient stage in terms of systematic hazard
assessment. Although there is a minimum information
base on past events, very few institutions produce
detailed analyses or integrate geospatial information in
a way that supports territorial planning and decision-
making. From a governance perspective, this limits
the capacity to prioritise interventions and to design
preventive measures beyond emergency response.
Regarding Strategic Action 6 (Table 3), 25 % of
entities report that the action has not been executed,
whereas 43.75 % have an ordinance to establish a Risk
and communities increases the severity of impacts,
mainly aecting those who depend on agricultural
activities.
C. Axes of the model
The management framework emphasizes inter-
institutional collaboration to improve interrelationships
and facilitate eective responses to adverse events.
This approach aims to strengthen coordination among
the entities involved, promoting integrated and
timely actions that minimize risks and strengthen the
resilience of the cantonal system. This framework is
characterized by the orientation presented in Table 6.
Management Unit or its equivalent. However, only 6.25
% have a specic annual operating plan (POA) for the
UGR, and another 6.25 % report contracts or executed
investments in risk management. No entity reports
the existence of formal resolutions or regulations that
establish risk reduction policies, and only 18.75 %
mention an ordinance formally creating the Cantonal
System.
D. Articulation and capacity building
The articulation and strengthening of capacities in
risk management aim to integrate social, institutional,
and community actors to eciently address
emergencies. The rst step is to promote coordination
spaces with key stakeholders, such as Community
Coordination Networks, to align objectives, dene
roles, and foster inclusive participation in planning
and decision-making. This creates cohesion among
involved parties, enabling quick and eective responses
to risk situations.
Table 6. Risk management model axes
Mainstreaming Risk Management in Babahoyo
Creation of the Risk
Management Unit
Inclusion of risk management
within territorial planning
Institutional articulation with
communities and external actors
36 │
Volumen 19, Número 51, Mayo-Agosto 2026, pp. 26 - 40
Figure 3. Interinstitutional Articulation
Institutional strengthening focuses on the
continuous training of municipal GADs, equipping
them with technical tools to assess risks, manage
emergencies, and plan resiliently. This training includes
practical workshops, drills, and the use of advanced
technologies, ensuring that local authorities have the
capacity to implement preventive measures and lead
eective responses.
Quantitative data from questionnaires and
matrices were processed using spreadsheets and
statistical software. Descriptive statistics (frequencies,
percentages and cross-tabulations) were employed to
characterise institutional capacities, implementation of
actions and levels of articulation. The relational matrix
was analysed using basic network measures (density
and degree) and visualised as a graph to highlight key
actors and coordination gaps.
Qualitative information from interviews and
eld observations was subjected to thematic content
analysis, coding responses into categories related to
governance, coordination mechanisms, perceived risks
and challenges. The convergence between quantitative
indicators and qualitative narratives was used to
interpret the functioning of the SCGR and to support
the design of the management model.
Finally, processes of shared responsibility with the
population are established, actively involving them
in risk management through awareness campaigns,
training community leaders, and promoting a culture
of prevention. This enables communities to take a
proactive role in risk mitigation, reducing the impact of
disasters and ensuring sustainable collaboration with
local institutions.
IV. DISCUSSION
The results obtained in Babahoyo conrm that
the eectiveness of local risk management systems
cannot be explained solely by the presence or absence
of formal institutions. Rather, it depends on the
interaction between institutional capacities, the density
and quality of inter-institutional relationships and
the way in which these arrangements are translated
into concrete actions in the territory. In this sense,
the conguration of the Cantonal Risk Management
System (SCGR) in Babahoyo reects trends reported in
other Latin American and Global South contexts, where
decentralisation has formally assigned responsibilities
to local governments, but institutionalisation and
operational capacity remain uneven across territories.
The analysis of Strategic Actions 1 and 6 illustrates
this “implementation gap”. On the one hand, Babahoyo
has created Risk Management Units (UGR) and
has incorporated the topic into certain municipal
structures, which aligns with national regulations and
with the emphasis on local governance promoted by
international frameworks. On the other hand, the low
proportion of entities that produce detailed hazard
assessments or maintain specic operating plans and
budgets for risk management shows that these advances
are still fragile. Similar patterns have been reported
in other medium-size cities, where risk management
is often subordinated to short-term political cycles
and is treated as a cross-cutting issue without clear
instruments, dedicated sta or stable funding. In
Babahoyo, this situation limits the capacity of the
SCGR to move from a reactive approach, centred on
emergency response, to one that prioritises prospective
and corrective risk reduction.
│ 37
Ramírez. Impact of the cantonal risk management system
The high global inter-institutional articulation
index (75.78 %) provides an interesting counterpoint.
At rst sight, this value suggests a relatively robust
governance network, with frequent coordination
among key actors, especially around the Emergency
Operations Committee (COE) and response operations.
However, a more detailed examination reveals
asymmetries within the network: some institutions
maintain strong and recurrent links, while others—
particularly those related to social sectors, community
organisations or certain parish governments—
occupy more peripheral positions. This conguration
is consistent with the idea of “response-centred
governance”, where coordination is activated primarily
during emergencies and is dominated by actors with
operational resources (re brigades, police, municipal
services), whereas prevention, land-use regulation
and social participation are less institutionalised. The
Babahoyo case thus conrms that a dense network
is not necessarily synonymous with eective risk
reduction if its operation is not aligned with long-term
planning and equity criteria.
From the territorial perspective, the identication
of 39 critical sites with high and very high multi-hazard
risk reinforces the argument that risk is socially and
spatially produced, rather than merely given by natural
conditions. Many of the sites correspond to riverbanks
with long-standing problems of bank erosion, failure
of protection works and occupation of ood-prone
zones, as well as hillsides with inadequate drainage
or road embankments exposed to instability. The
recurrence of damage and the cumulative deterioration
of infrastructure indicate that structural measures
have been partial, palliative or poorly maintained. This
pattern has also been documented in other oodplains
and low-lying agricultural areas, where productive
pressures and housing demands lead to settlement
in high-risk zones in the absence of eective land-use
control and viable relocation alternatives. The Babahoyo
ndings therefore support the need to integrate multi-
hazard risk criteria into cantonal development and
land-use plans, rather than limiting interventions to
post-event reconstruction.
The convergence between institutional and spatial
analyses is particularly relevant. The concentration of
very high-risk sites along river corridors and in rural
enclosures with limited access to services coincides
with weaker institutional presence and fewer formal
coordination mechanisms at the local level. This
suggests that current governance arrangements are
more eective in the urban core and in highly visible
infrastructures than in dispersed or marginalised
rural communities, which tend to accumulate greater
vulnerability. From a governance perspective, this
underscores the importance of strengthening parish
GADs, community organisations and sectoral agencies
that operate in these territories, as well as of creating
mechanisms for their eective participation in planning
and decision-making spaces.
V. CONCLUSION
This study analysed the impact of the Cantonal
Risk Management System (SCGR) on governance and
the reduction of natural risks—especially oods and
landslides—in Babahoyo canton between January
2022 and September 2023. The ndings show that
the existence of a formal risk management structure
is a necessary but not sucient condition to ensure
eective risk reduction at the territorial level.
First, the research conrms that Babahoyo has
a broad institutional base for risk management,
which includes national agencies, the municipal and
parish governments, sectoral entities and support
organisations. This conguration responds to the
decentralisation framework established in Ecuador
and provides a potentially favourable ground for risk
governance. However, the analysis of Strategic Actions
1 and 6 reveals that institutionalisation is partial and
uneven: although several Risk Management Units
have been formally created, only a small group of
entities develop detailed hazard assessments, specic
operating plans or budgetary instruments dedicated to
risk management. As a result, the SCGR still operates
predominantly under a reactive logic, with emphasis
on emergency response rather than on prospective and
corrective risk reduction.
Second, the inter-institutional articulation index
of 75.78 % indicates a relatively dense coordination
network, particularly around the Emergency Operations
Committee and response operations. Nonetheless, the
presence of medium and low articulation links and the
asymmetric positioning of some actors show that the
network is not homogeneous. Coordination is strongest
among institutions directly linked to emergency
response and urban services, while it is weaker with
community organisations, certain parish governments
38 │
Volumen 19, Número 51, Mayo-Agosto 2026, pp. 26 - 40
and social sectors. This pattern suggests a form of
response-centred governance, in which interaction
intensies during emergencies but is less consolidated
in planning, prevention and long-term territorial
management.
Third, the multi-hazard analysis identied 39
critical sites with high and very high levels of ood-
and landslide-related risk. These sites are mainly
concentrated along riverbanks and in areas with
unstable slopes or decient drainage. The recurrence
of damage—such as erosion and collapse of protective
structures, ooding of dwellings and agricultural land,
and periodic road failures—indicates that existing
interventions have been insucient, fragmented or
weakly maintained. Risk is thus reproduced over
time through the interaction between hazardous
conditions, exposure of infrastructure and settlements
in inappropriate locations, and socio-economic
vulnerability of rural and peri-urban communities.
Fourth, the convergence between institutional
and territorial analyses indicates that the areas with
the highest accumulated risk tend to coincide with
territories where institutional presence and inter-
institutional coordination are weaker. This nding
suggests that current governance arrangements are
more eective in the urban core and in highly visible
infrastructures than in dispersed rural communities
and smaller settlements. Addressing this imbalance
requires strengthening parish-level governance,
promoting community participation and improving the
integration of risk criteria into local development and
land-use plans.
Fifth, based on these results, the article proposes
a management model for Babahoyo organised
around four axes: (i) institutional strengthening and
normative consolidation of the SCGR; (ii) prospective
and corrective risk reduction, including structural
and non-structural measures; (iii) preparedness
and response, with improved early warning and
operational coordination; and (iv) citizen participation
and community resilience. The model’s contribution
lies in articulating improvements in institutional
architecture and inter-institutional relationships
with the prioritisation of interventions in the most
critical sites identied by the multi-hazard matrix,
thereby operationalising the principles of the Sendai
Framework at the cantonal scale.
From a practical standpoint, the study highlights
several policy implications: (i) the need to consolidate
risk management as a sustained municipal function,
with specic ordinances, operating plans and budget
lines; (ii) the importance of strengthening technical
capacities for hazard assessment and geospatial analysis
to support risk-sensitive territorial planning; (iii) the
urgency of designing and implementing integrated
intervention programmes in the 39 critical sites,
combining infrastructure works, land-use regulation
and community preparedness; and (iv) the relevance
of promoting mechanisms that ensure the eective
participation of rural and peri-urban communities in
planning and decision-making processes.
VI. CONCLUSION
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