El Impacto Asimétrico del Transporte Aéreo en el Crecimiento Económico de Ecuador y sus Países Fronterizos: Un Análisis Multidimensional
El Impacto Asimétrico del Transporte Aéreo en el Crecimiento Económico de Ecuador y sus Países Fronterizos: Un Análisis Multidimensional
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29076/issn.2528-7737vol17iss44.2024pp1-16pPalabras clave:
Transporte aéreo, crecimiento económico, NARDL, Ecuador, Perú, ColombiaResumen
El presente estudio se centra en analizar si el transporte aéreo impulsa el crecimiento económico en el contexto de Ecuador, Perú y Colombia. La investigación examina los impactos asimétricos a largo y corto plazo del transporte aéreo (TA) en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB). Para controlar la endogeneidad del modelo econométrico se incluye variables de control que corresponden a determinantes adicionales del crecimiento. Para lograr el objetivo del estudio, se aplica la metodología asimétrica de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos no lineales (NARDL) desarrollada por Shin et al. (2014), en la que se descompone el TA en cambios positivos y negativos. Así mismo, se examina la raíz unitaria y prueba de límites. Los resultados empíricos muestran impactos asimétricos tanto a corto como a largo plazo, del TA en el crecimiento económico. Se evidencio que el TA ejerce implicaciones positivas sobre el crecimiento en Ecuador y Colombia. Efecto que es contrario para la economía peruana. Las estimaciones demuestran que, en el corto plazo, las perturbaciones positivas del TA tienen un comportamiento diferente entre ellas, es así que la relación entre el TA y el crecimiento económico es negativa para Ecuador y Colombia. Para el caso de Perú, el modelo NARDL no tiene resultados significativos.
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