Empirical estimation of the probability of lethal events caused by floods in Peru
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29076/issn.2528-7737vol14iss37.2021pp29-38pKeywords:
Physical and climatic variability, affected dwellings, lethality rate, empirical modelAbstract
The research empirically estimated the probability of lethal events caused by floods based on the affected homes. The empirical estimation used the disaster database of the National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI) of Peru for the period 2003–2017; A descriptive analysis of the floods was carried out and subsequently a probabilistic curve of lethal events was estimated using a logistic model, relating the logarithm in base 10 of the houses with the probability of finding at least one death. The results show that floods occupy the fifth place in terms of the annual average of deaths and the second place in terms of the number of homes affected, on the other hand, according to the probabilistic curve of lethal events (at least one death) the rate the fatality rate is 27 deaths per 1 000 emergencies and that the affected homes and the number of deaths have a moderate to strong correlation (r2 = 0.669). The model presents an R2 = 0.98 which indicates reliability. It is concluded that the proposed model can be used to probabilistically estimate the risk of lethal events based on the number of houses built.
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