FLEXIBILIDAD Y FIABILIDAD EN LA MEDICIÓN DE LA ECONOMÍA SUMERGIDA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29076/issn.2528-7737vol18iss47.2025pp1-17pPalabras clave:
economía informal, medición, estimación, metodología, revisión.Resumen
La economía sumergida puede tener consecuencias ambiguas sobre el crecimiento económico y la moralidad de una sociedad determinada, entre otras, y diferir considerablemente en tamaño a lo largo del tiempo y en los distintos territorios. En este contexto, cuantificar la economía sumergida es una tarea necesaria pero complicada que se basa en procedimientos de medición como modelos de datos de encuestas, cuestionarios y enfoques econométricos. El presente artículo pretende revisar los supuestos básicos y las principales características de la actual metodología de evaluación del sector informal, explorando los posibles problemas de inexactitud inherentes a los métodos flexibles y las preocupaciones de inflexibilidad presentes en los procesos más fiables. Si bien los enfoques de «equilibrio general» encarnan los intentos más plausibles y prometedores de conciliar las propiedades de flexibilidad y fiabilidad, este documento tratará de dilucidar si es posible alcanzar un equilibrio razonable con las metodologías disponibles en la actualidad.
Descargas
Referencias
Alm, J., and Torgler, B. (2003), “Culture differences and tax morale in the United States and in Europe”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 27: 224-246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2005.09.002
Barro, R. J., and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004), Economic growth, Cambridge: Massachussets Institute of Technology.
Barzel, Y. (1997), Economic analysis of property rights, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Breusch, T. (2005a), “Australia’s cash economy: are the estimates credible?”, The Economic Record, 81(255): 394–403. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00277.x
Breusch, T. (2005b), Estimating the underground economy using MIMIC models. The School of Economics, Canberra: The Australian National University.
Breusch, T. (2005c), “The canadian underground economy: an examination of giles and tedds”, Canadian Tax Journal, 53(2), 367–91.
Busato, F., and Chiarini, B. (2004), “Market and underground activities in a two-sector Dynamic Equilibrium Model”, Economic Theory, 23: 831–861. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-003-0400-5
Cagan, P. (1958), “The demand for currency relative to the total money supply”, Journal of Political Economy, 66(4): 303-328. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1827423
Carbajo, D., Pérez, M., and Ruesga, S. (2013), “La economía sumergida y el ciclo económico”, Atlantic Review of Economics, 2(1). https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=4745282
Costa, C. J., Garcia-Cintado, A. C., and Usabiaga, C. (2020), “Fiscal Adjustments and the shadow economy in an emerging country”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(7): 1666-1700. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100519000828
Daude, C., Gutierrez, H., and Melguizo, A. (2013), “What drives tax morale? A focus on emerging economies”, Review of Public Economics, 207(4): 9-40. https://dx.doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.24.1.5
Del Boca, D. (1981), “Parallel economy and allocation of time”, Quarterly Journal of Microeconomics, 2(4): 13-18.
Dilnot, A., and Morris, C. (1981), “What Do We Know About the Black Economy?”, Fiscal Studies, 2(1): 58-73. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24434444
Elgin, C. (2021), The informal economy: Measures, causes, and consequences, London: Routledge.
Elgin, C., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., and Yu., S. (2021), “Understanding Informality”, C.E.P.R. Discussion Paper, 16497, Centre for Economic Policy and Research. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3914265
Elgin, C., and Oztunali, O. (2012), “Shadow economies around the world: Model based estimates”, Bogazici University Department of Economics Working Papers, 5: 1-48.
Elgin, C., and Sezgin, M. B. (2017), “Sectoral estimates of informality: A new method and application for the Turkish economy”, The Developing Economies, 55(4): 261-289. https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.12151
Eurostat. (2024), Glossary: Non-observed economy. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Non-observed_economy_(NOE)
Feige, E. (1979), “How big is the irregular economy?”, Challenge, 22(5): 5-13. https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.1979.11470559
Fève, P., Moura, A., and Pierrard, O. (2019). “Shadow banking and financial regulation: A small-scale DSGE perspective”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 101(1): 130-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.02.001
Frey, B., and Weck-Hannemann, H. (1984), “The hidden economy as an ‘unobservable’ variable”, European Economic Review, 26(1-2): 33-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(84)90020-5
García, A. V., Peñas, S. L., and Leiceaga, X. F. (2015), “Economía sumergida y fraude fiscal en España ¿Qué es lo que sabemos?”, Documentos de trabajo, (768): 1-45, Madrid: Funcas.
GESTHA, Sindicato de Gestores y Técnicos de Hacienda. (2014), La economía sumergida pasa factura. El avance del fraude en España durante la crisis. https://www.gestha.es/archivos/actualidad/2014/2014-01-29_INFORME_LaEconomiaSumergidaPasaFactura.pdf
Golderberg, A. S. (1972), Structural equation methods in the social sciences, Amsterdam: North Holland.
Gómez-Plana, A. G., and Pascual, P. (2011). “Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: Incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general”, Review of Public Economics, 199(4): 9-52.
Gómez, M.A., and Ríos-Blanco, A. (2022), “Comment on ‘Measuring the size of the shadow economy using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends’”, Econ Journal Watch, 19(1): 124-132. https://journaltalk.net/articles/6049
Gutmann, P. (1977), “The subterranean economy”, Financial Analysts Journal, 33(6): 26-34. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v33.n6.26
Hart, K. (2008), The new palgrave dictionary of economics: Informal economy (2nd ed.), New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Ihrig, J., and Moe, K. S. (2004), “Lurking in the shadows: The informal sector and government policy”, Journal of Development Economics, 73(2): 541-557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.04.004
Irandoust, M. (in press), “Informality and Taxation: Evidence from Seven Latin American Countries”, Review of Public Economics, 248(1): 91-114. https://dx.doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.24.1.5
Isachsen, A., Klovland, A., and Strøm, S. (1982), “The hidden economy in Norway”, In Tanzi, V. (ed.), The underground economy in the United States and abroad, 209–231, Mayland: Lexington Books.
Jöreskog, K.G., and Goldberger, A. S. (1975), “Estimation of a model with multiple indicators and multiple causes of a single latent variable”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(351a): 631-639. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1975.10482485
Kaliberda, A., and Kaufmann, D. (1996), “Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies: A framework of analysis and evidence”, In Kaminski, B. (ed.), The International Politics of Eurasia: Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia, 8: 81-120, London: Routledge.
Lewis, W. A. (1954), “Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour”, The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22(2): 139-191.
Loayza, N. (1996), “The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 45: 129-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(96)00021-8
Maloney, W.F. (2004), “Informality revisited”, World Development, 32(7): 1159-1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.01.008
Matthews, K.G.P. (1982), “Demand for Currency and the Black Economy in the UK”, Journal of Economic Studies, 9(2): 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb002537
Matthews, K. (1983), “National Income and the Black Economy”, Economic Affairs, 3(4): 261-267. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0270.1983.tb01521.x
Matthews, K.G.P. (1984), “The GDP residual error and the black economy: a note”, Applied Economics, 16(3): 443-448. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036848400000049
Mauleón, I., and Sardà, J. (2018), “Problemas metodológicos en la estimación de la economía sumergida”, En Lago Peñas, S. (dir.), Economía sumergida y fraude fiscal en España ¿Qué sabemos? ¿Qué podemos hacer?, 49-86, Madrid: Funcas.
Medina, L., and Schneider, M. F. (2018), “Shadow economies around the world: what did we learn over the last 20 years?”, IFM Working Paper, 017, International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484338636.001
Meeks, R., Nelson, B., and Alessandri, P. (2013), “Shadow banks and macroeconomic instability”, Temi di Discussione (Working papers), 939, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
Neumann, W., and Wesche, K. (1995), “Divergent Trends in the Velocity of Money”, In Sierber, H. (ed.), Monetary Policy in an Integrated World Economy: Symposium 1995, Germany: Universität de Kiel.
OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2002), Measuring the Non-Observed Economy: A Handbook, OECD. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264175358-en
O’Neill, D. (1983), Growth of the underground economy 1950-81: Some evidence from the current population survey, Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Orsi, R., Raggi, D., and Turino, F. (2012), “Estimating the size of the underground economy: A DSGE Approach”, Working Papers, wp818, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Orsi, R., Raggi, D., and Turino, F. (2014), “Size, trend, and policy implications of the underground economy”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 17(3): 417-436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2013.11.001
Prado, A. (2004), “Una estimación de la economía informal en España según un enfoque monetario, 1964-2001”, El Trimestre Económico, 71(282): 417-452.
Prado, M. (2011), “Government policy in the formal and informal sectors”, European Economic Review, 55(8): 1120-1136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.04.010
Restrepo-Echevarría, P. (2014), “Macroeconomic volatility: the role of the informal economy”, European Economic Review, 70: 454-469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.06.012
Ríos, V., Gómez-Plana, A. G., and Pascual, P. (2021), “Raising the accuracy of shadow economy measurements”, Review of Public Economics, 239(4): 71-125. https://dx.doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.21.4.3
Roca, J. C. C., Moreno, C. D., and Sánchez, J. E. G. (2001), “Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations”, Spanish Economic Review, 3(1), 41-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00013586
Rodríguez, A. (2007), Cuantificación del tamaño de la economía informal en México: Una estimación a través del método monetario, de insumos físicos y modelos estructurales [Doctoral dissertation], Madrid: Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/tesis?codigo=30185
Sarte, P. (2000), “Informality and rent-seeking bureaucracies in a model of long-run growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1): 173-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00020-9
Schneider, F., and Buehn, A. (2018), “Shadow economy: Estimation methods, problems, results and open questions”, Open Economics, 1(1): 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1515/openec-2017-0001
Schneider, F., Buehn, A., and Montenegro, C. E. (2010), “New estimates for the shadow economy all over the world”, International Economic Journal, 24(4): 443-461. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2010.525974
Schneider, F., and Enste, D. H. (2000), “Shadow economies: Size, causes, and consequences”, Journal of Economic Literature, 38(1): 77-114. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.77
Schneider, F., and Willams, C.C. (2013), The Shadow Economy, London: IEA.
Serrano-Sanz, J., Bandrés, E., Gadea, M., and Sanaú, J. (1998), Desigualdades territoriales en la economía sumergida, Zaragoza: Confederación de Empresarios de Aragón (CREA) e Instituto Aragonés de Fomento (IAF).
Smets, F., and Wouters, R. (2007), “Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach”, American Economic Review, 97(3): 586-606. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.3.586
Smith, S. (1986), Britain's Shadow Economy, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Solis-Garcia, M., and Xie, Y. (2018), “Measuring the size of the shadow economy using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 56: 258-275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.04.004
Solis-Garcia, M., and Xie, Y. (2022), “Response to ‘Comment on Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy Using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Trends’, Econ Journal Watch, 19(1): 133-141. https://journaltalk.net/articles/6050
Tanzi, V. (1982), The Underground Economy in the United States and Abroad, New York: Free Press.
Tanzi, V. (1983), “The Underground Economy in the United States: Annual Estimates, 1930-80”, Staff Papers (IMF), 30(2): 283-305. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867001
Zellner, A. (1970), “Estimation of regression relationships containing unobservable variables”, International Economic Review, 11(3): 441-454. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525323
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2025 CIENCIA UNEMI

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
Los autores pueden mantener el copyright, concediendo a la revista el derecho de primera publicación. Alternativamente, los autores pueden transferir el copyright a la revista, la cual permitirá a los autores el uso no-comercial del trabajo, incluyendo el derecho a colocarlo en un archivo de acceso libre.