El Impacto Asimétrico del Transporte Aéreo en el Crecimiento Económico de Ecuador y sus Países Fronterizos: Un Análisis Multidimensional
El Impacto Asimétrico del Transporte Aéreo en el Crecimiento Económico de Ecuador y sus Países Fronterizos: Un Análisis Multidimensional
Resumen
El presente estudio se centra en analizar si el transporte aéreo impulsa el crecimiento económico en el contexto de Ecuador, Perú y Colombia. La investigación examina los impactos asimétricos a largo y corto plazo del transporte aéreo (TA) en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB). Para controlar la endogeneidad del modelo econométrico se incluye variables de control que corresponden a determinantes adicionales del crecimiento. Para lograr el objetivo del estudio, se aplica la metodología asimétrica de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos no lineales (NARDL) desarrollada por Shin et al. (2014), en la que se descompone el TA en cambios positivos y negativos. Así mismo, se examina la raíz unitaria y prueba de límites. Los resultados empíricos muestran impactos asimétricos tanto a corto como a largo plazo, del TA en el crecimiento económico. Se evidencio que el TA ejerce implicaciones positivas sobre el crecimiento en Ecuador y Colombia. Efecto que es contrario para la economía peruana. Las estimaciones demuestran que, en el corto plazo, las perturbaciones positivas del TA tienen un comportamiento diferente entre ellas, es así que la relación entre el TA y el crecimiento económico es negativa para Ecuador y Colombia. Para el caso de Perú, el modelo NARDL no tiene resultados significativos.Descargas
Citas
Adedoyin, F. F., Bekun, F. V., Driha, O. M., & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2020). The effects of air transportation, energy, ICT and FDI on economic growth in the industry 4.0 era: Evidence from the United States. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120297
Arltová, M. (2016). Selection of Unit Root Test on the Basis of Length of the Time Series and Value of AR(1) Parameter. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308972405
Baker, D., Merkert, R., & Kamruzzaman, M. (2015). Regional aviation and economic growth: Cointegration and causality analysis in Australia. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 140–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.02.001
Bilen, M., Yilanci, V., & Eryüzlü, H. (2015). Tourism development and economic growth: a panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 27–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2015.1073231
Campbell, J., & Perron Pierre. (1991). Pitfalls and oppotunities: What Macroeconomists should know about unit roots. In NBER macroeconomics annual (Vol. 6, pp. 141–220). MIT Press. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c10983/c10983.pdf
Frechtling, D. C., & Horváth, E. (1999). Estimating the multiplier effects of tourism expenditures on a local economy through a regional input-output model. Journal of Travel Research, 37(4), 324–332. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728759903700402
Han, H., Lee, S., Meng, B., Chua, B. L., & Ryu, H. B. (2020). The relative importance of volunteer tourism (sustainable/pro-social form of tourism) motivation factors for young tourists: A descriptive analysis by continents, gender, and frequency. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/SU12104002
Henseler, M., Maisonnave, H., & Maskaeva, A. (2022). Economic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Tanzania. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2022.100042
Isik, C., Kasimati, E., & Ongan, S. (2017). Analyzing the causalities between economic growth, financial development, international trade, tourism expenditure and/on the CO2 emissions in Greece. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, 12(7), 665–673. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2016.1263251
Kadir, N., & Karim, M. Z. A. (2012). Tourism and Economic Growth in Malaysia: Evidence from Tourist Arrivals from Asean-S Countries. Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 25(4), 1089–1100. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2012.11517550
Koondhar, M. A., Udemba, E. N., Cheng, Y., Khan, Z. A., Koondhar, M. A., Batool, M., & Kong, R. (2021). Asymmetric causality among carbon emission from agriculture, energy consumption, fertilizer, and cereal food production – A nonlinear analysis for Pakistan. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101099
Kyara, V. C., Rahman, M. M., & Khanam, R. (2021). Tourism expansion and economic growth in Tanzania: A causality analysis. Heliyon, 7(5). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06966
Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013
Liu, A., Kim, Y. R., & Song, H. (2022). Toward an accurate assessment of tourism economic impact: A systematic literature review. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2022.100054
Majeed, M. T., Ozturk, I., Samreen, I., & Luni, T. (2022). Evaluating the asymmetric effects of nuclear energy on carbon emissions in Pakistan. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 54(5), 1664–1673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.net.2021.11.021
Marazzo, M., Scherre, R., & Fernandes, E. (2010). Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 46(2), 261–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2009.08.008
Marques, L. M., Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2017). Augmented energy-growth nexus: Economic, political and social globalization impacts. Energy Procedia, 136, 97–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.10.293
Mwakalobo, A., Kaswamila, A., Kira, A., Chawala, O., & Tear, T. (2016). Tourism Regional Multiplier Effects in Tanzania: Analysis of Singita Grumeti Reserves Tourism in the Mara Region. Journal of Sustainable Development, 9(4), 44. https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v9n4p44
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001a). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001b). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–381. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Rahman, Z. U., & Ahmad, M. (2019). Modeling the relationship between gross capital formation and CO 2 (a)symmetrically in the case of Pakistan: an empirical analysis through NARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(8), 8111–8124. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04254-7
Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745
Smyth, A., Christodoulou, G., Dennis, N., AL-Azzawi, M., & Campbell, J. (2012). Is air transport a necessity for social inclusion and economic development? Journal of Air Transport Management, 22, 53–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.01.009
Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2018). Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: A New Global Evidence. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 59(3), 304–311. https://doi.org/10.1177/1938965517735743
Usmani, G., Akram, V., & Praveen, B. (2021). Tourist arrivals, international tourist expenditure, and economic growth in BRIC countries. Journal of Public Affairs, 21(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2202
Wen, F., Zhao, L., He, S., & Yang, G. (2020). Asymmetric relationship between carbon emission trading market and stock market: Evidences from China. Energy Economics, 91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104850
WTTC. (2020, July 24). Travel & Tourism Global Economic Impact & Trends. World Travel & Tourism Council. https://wttc.org/research/economic-impact
WTTC. (2023a). Travel & Tourism’s economic contribution to LATAM’s GDP will exceed pre-pandemic levels: WTTC. World Travel & Tourism Council.
WTTC. (2023b, March). Economic Impact Research. World Travel & Tourism Council. https://wttc.org/research/economic-impact
Yao, S., & Yang, X. (2012). Air transport and regional economic growth in china. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics, 19(3), 318–329. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2012.667458
Derechos de autor 2024 CIENCIA UNEMI
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObrasDerivadas 4.0.
Los autores pueden mantener el copyright, concediendo a la revista el derecho de primera publicación. Alternativamente, los autores pueden transferir el copyright a la revista, la cual permitirá a los autores el uso no-comercial del trabajo, incluyendo el derecho a colocarlo en un archivo de acceso libre.
